Brexit offers an immediate opportunity for project managers to step up

Two industry commentators argue the case for and against.

For

Project managers can play a critical role in steadying the ship in these uncertain times. The fact that almost anything could happen is not an acceptable reason for procrastination.

The Brexit vote has pushed British companies into a volatile and uncertain business environment, pulling the rug from under many project managers’ feet. However, paralysis is not an option. The first step is to capture the dimensions of the uncertainty. A full Brexit analysis of the risks, assumptions, issues and decisions (a RAID log) is critical. A careful exploration of potential scenarios will reveal strategic options to address each possible outcome.

Project managers can use a scenario-planning exercise to identify strategies that are valid across a high proportion of scenarios; these should probably be implemented immediately, before we know the outcome of Brexit negotiations. Other strategies may emerge that significantly mitigate risk or generate opportunities only in specific circumstances. It is important to know in advance what might trigger their implementation.

Project managers are well placed to provide insight and support leaders’ duty to make business-critical decisions in uncertain times, such as whether to bet on strategies that increase investment or reduce exposure. But identifying strategies is not enough; they must test them. ‘Red teaming’, whereby independent teams scrutinise plans and projects, is another valuable tool which can be put to good use in a Brexit world. Red teams challenge assumptions and shake up thinking. They offer alternative perspectives and rigorously test strategies to identify weaknesses.

The intention of these preparations is not to create stability or predict the future. However, they enable decisive action at the critical moment when circumstances reveal themselves. We are in an environment now where hesitation can cost jobs and speed can win market share; project managers, step up.

Paul Heugh is CEO at strategy consultancy Skarbek Associates.

Against

Project managers work best with a plan, but currently there is no plan for Brexit, either from government or the private sector. So, until we know more, this is not yet an opportunity for project managers to step up.

Brexit is going to be one of the largest peace-time changes ever and, worryingly, it seems that the government had no contingency for a leave vote. Many businesses were also unprepared and face uncertainty.

The impact is huge: Brexit will affect the way many businesses, organisations and government departments operate and will define future prosperity for the UK. But we still do not know what it means in practice. It will not be an opportunity for project managers until the details have become clearer, once Article 50 negotiations are resolved. At that point, it will be time to roll up the sleeves and get on with the implementation.

If ever a change needed a structured implementation approach, it’s Brexit. It cannot be left to chance, to go the way of Universal Credit or the NHS National Programme for IT, with significant overspends and delay. For project managers, there are several key questions:

• What governance arrangements will be put in place?
• Is Brexit a portfolio, programme or project – or in fact a mega-programme?
• Will it involve an iterative, step-by-step approach or a single big bang?
• Who will identify and manage the interfaces between the different projects?
• How will the different projects be prioritised?
• What risks (both threats and opportunities) will arise?

Some argue it is too early to consider such questions, but I believe it is never too soon to start thinking about the plan. It’s much better to have a plan that is flexible than no plan at all. The APM 20|20 vision of a world in which every project succeeds just got a bit more challenging.

Paul Naybour is business development director at Parallel Project Training.