Member exclusive – APM Fellows Forum

The great and the good of the project profession took an afternoon out to attend the Association for Project Management’s (APM) Fellows Forum in the northern powerhouse city of Manchester this week to focus on the key strategic issues facing businesses in the UK today.

APM’s Fellows were treated to in-depth briefings by experts from the CBI across a range of topics, including the current state of politics and Brexit, a UK and global economic outlook for the coming year, an early look at CBI research into the future of commuting, as well as a consideration of regional devolution in England.

Racing Against the Clock

First up was Callum Biggins, the CBI’s head of campaigns, whose take on politics and what to expect from the appointment of a new prime minister centred on the new uncertainties this will create for business around Brexit. Whether it’s Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt, the new prime minister will need to grapple with Brexit fast.

Biggins made clear the three Brexit options facing the new prime minister. The first is to deliver Brexit, possibly by extracting concessions from the EU on the current withdrawal agreement (particularly over the Irish backstop) and trying to resell the current deal to MPs. The second is a ‘reset option’, which means holding an early general election, committing to a second referendum, or revoking Article 50 to try to shake up the process. The third is the legal default position, which is leaving the EU on 31 October with no deal.

Given the Conservative’s knife-edge majority in the Commons, Biggins argued that it was conceivable that the new prime minister could be tempted by an early general election, but the volatile political landscape meant that the outcome of a poll was far from certain. The lack of parliamentary time until 31 October also means the prime minister will need to focus on readiness for a no-deal exit.

Business and No-Deal

Unsurprisingly, the CBI said that its members find the prospect of a no-deal Brexit “extremely worrying”, with the necessary stockpiling in the lead up to Black Friday and Christmas putting extra pressure on warehousing space. What’s more, Biggins said that “these businesses have to go through the psychology of no-deal again, even if they have already prepared for it.”

However, the biggest challenge for the next prime minister will be one of time. Taking in the summer break at Westminster as well as the party conference season, there will be fewer than 40 parliamentary days to get ready for Brexit. The task would be very difficult to achieve and so another extension to Article 50 cannot be ruled out, said Biggins.

His advice to businesses grappling with Brexit? To ignore the day-to-day psychodrama playing out at Westminster, focus on the big Brexit milestones that lie ahead and prepare for the likely scenarios.

Infrastructure Projects

The CBI has campaigned on a number of key major infrastructure projects in recent years, including HS2 and Heathrow, Thomas Barlow, senior policy adviser at the CBI, reminded us. With a change of government, there will be a renewed importance on making a case for both of these projects, particularly if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister. Johnson’s previous opposition to Heathrow expansion (although this appears to be softening) and the fact that he has called for HS2 to be reviewed are causes for some concern and will influence how the CBI handles the case for both projects.

“Watch this space”, said Barlow.

The future of commuting is a topic of current research by the CBI, which hopes to make recommendations as to how business productivity and employee quality of life can be improved by making travelling to work simpler, more flexible and more effective.

The average commute in the UK is 25 minutes, although this rises to 46 minutes in London, and more than two-thirds of commutes are by car. A link has been made between shorter commutes and greater levels of happiness, so what might a vision for the future look like? It could mean more working from home and better infrastructure and technology. The CBI’s initial research will be out later this year.

A delve into devolution

Jim Hubbard, the CBI’s head of regional policy, spoke on the government’s Industrial Strategy, which was launched 18 months ago, and its role in creating more innovation and sharing prosperity across the whole of the UK.

He told Fellows that the momentum around regional devolution has slowed down recently and that there are now 11 combined authorities in England, each with its own deal. It is the CBI’s aim to create greater clarity around what’s next and to support local Industrial Strategies to tackle the regional imbalances in productivity in England. The UK is the second least productive country in the G7, and levels of productivity have stalled since 2007. Not only are our cities not performing as well as European competitors, but there are vast differences of productivity within regions themselves.

The government is calling on all local areas to have an Industrial Strategy in place by early 2020. It has also formed an Industrial Strategy Council that will publish its framework for success in November. Chaired by Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, the council will continue to monitor progress and tell government what is and isn’t working. The CBI will continue to push for the proper resourcing and support from government that these strategies need.

Summary

The afternoon’s key themes were picked out by Henry Aldridge, the CBI’s head of trade associations:

Political uncertainty is unprecedented, and businesses are desperate to get back to focusing on domestic challenges
The continuing importance of managing an ever-changing cast of stakeholders
Business must continue to campaign to unlocking infrastructure spending